Pakistan is facing a situation filled with irony as it grapples with neighboring countries weaponizing water resources against it. The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty by India following a terror attack and the subsequent construction of dams on the Kunar River by Taliban-ruled Afghanistan are creating water scarcity concerns for Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.
The long-standing Indus Waters Treaty, established in 1960, had maintained a balance by allocating control of rivers between India and Pakistan. However, in April 2025, India halted this agreement, impacting Pakistan’s irrigation systems and hydroelectric power generation. This move was seen as a harsh message in response to the Pahalgam terror incident that claimed civilian lives.
Amid efforts to manage the fallout from India’s actions, Afghanistan, under Taliban leadership, initiated dam construction on the Kunar River to assert its “water sovereignty”. This development, coming after deadly border clashes, is perceived as a calculated move to retaliate against Pakistan.
The diversion of the Kunar River, which flows into Pakistan through the Kabul River and eventually joins the Indus River, poses a significant threat to regions downstream, affecting agriculture in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab. Pakistan’s water availability per capita has drastically declined over the years, reaching levels of absolute scarcity.
India’s backing of water projects in Afghanistan, such as the India-Afghanistan Friendship Dam and the upcoming Shahtoot Dam, further complicates Pakistan’s water security. These initiatives not only reduce Afghanistan’s reliance on Pakistan but also give Kabul strategic leverage over its former ally.
The shift in dynamics highlights Pakistan’s vulnerability in the face of strategic water challenges. With India’s involvement in Afghan water projects and the Taliban’s assertive stance on water resources, Pakistan finds itself navigating a harsh reality where downstream regions bear the brunt of escalating water conflicts in South Asia.