Gold prices in India remained stable on Thursday as investors anticipated the upcoming US Federal Reserve policy meeting. Gold futures on the MCX opened at Rs 1,30,799 per 10 grams, slightly higher than the previous close, before settling at Rs 1,30,414 by the end of trading. The current price of gold stood at Rs 129,837, showing a decrease of 0.48%. Silver prices also experienced a decline, reaching Rs 179,890, down by 1.35%.
Rahul Kalantri, the VP of Commodities at Mehta Equities Ltd, characterized the recent bullion trading session as turbulent. He mentioned that gold and silver exhibited significant intraday volatility, bouncing back from lows but failing to maintain gains, ultimately closing flat. Precious metals approached new highs as market participants reacted to crucial US economic data and escalating geopolitical tensions. The weak ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report, released below expectations, fueled speculation about the Fed’s future actions, causing the dollar index to dip below 99 and providing further momentum to precious metals. Given the rising geopolitical risks, investors continued to rely on the safe-haven appeal of gold.
In terms of technical analysis, gold was seen to have support levels at $4175-4145 and resistance levels at $4270-4295. Silver, on the other hand, had support at $57.70-56.85 and resistance at $58.95-59.45. In Indian Rupees, gold found support at Rs 1,29,450-1,28,750 and resistance at Rs 1,30,950-1,31,700. Silver’s support levels were at Rs 1,80,750-1,79,200 with resistance at Rs 1,83,510-1,84,670.
Discussing gold’s performance in 2025, Ross Maxwell, the Global Strategy Lead at VT Markets, attributed gold’s strong showing to a combination of global and domestic factors. He highlighted ongoing geopolitical tensions, policy uncertainties, a weaker US dollar, and sustained safe-haven demand. Maxwell also pointed out that factors such as falling real interest rates, increased central bank gold purchases, and events like the US government shutdown, inflation worries, and US-China trade disputes contributed to gold’s success. In India, a softer rupee and demand related to the wedding season further bolstered prices.
Looking forward, Maxwell suggested that the recent fluctuations in gold prices could indicate a period of healthy consolidation. He emphasized the importance of central-bank purchases, geopolitical uncertainties, a softer US dollar, and cautious global growth as underlying drivers for gold going into 2026. Maxwell predicted a continued upward trend for gold, albeit at a more moderate pace, as long as it maintains its 2025 support levels. Considering persistent inflationary pressures and evolving monetary policies, he recommended steady accumulation or buying during market dips as a prudent strategy.
Maxwell also outlined potential risks for gold in 2026, including a stronger US dollar, higher real interest rates, increased US inflation, robust labor market data leading to delayed rate cuts by the Fed, reduced geopolitical tensions, a stronger Indian rupee, and a decrease in central bank gold purchases. He cautioned that if central banks reduce their gold acquisitions after the significant buying seen in 2025, the structural support for gold could weaken, making gold prices more susceptible to global market fluctuations.