As the vote counting commences for the Bihar Assembly election, attention is not only on the political results but also on how the stock market might respond. The outcomes of 243 constituencies spread across 38 districts are set to be announced today, with expectations for a cautious opening on Dalal Street.
Trading data shows that Nifty futures were at 25,845.5 points at 7:37 am, indicating a potential lower opening compared to Thursday’s closing figure of 25,879.15. Both the Nifty and the Sensex ended flat on Thursday following a 1.5% increase in the preceding three sessions.
Market analysts anticipate a volatile session on Friday as investors await the verdict on whether the current ruling alliance will maintain its position. Siddhartha Khemka, the head of research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, mentioned that heightened volatility could be witnessed in Friday’s session due to the Bihar election results.
While exit polls predict a victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), experts caution that an unexpected loss could trigger a correction of approximately 5%–7%, impacting policy continuity and political stability.
According to Trivesh, the COO of Tradejini, the broader market is not likely to experience significant fluctuations unless the final results deviate significantly from the exit polls. He emphasized that the market has largely factored in the anticipated outcome of the Bihar Legislative Assembly election, expecting policy continuity under the ruling NDA.
Despite global influences driving the market, specific sectors such as banks, infrastructure, and public sector stocks could witness movement based on the election results, given their sensitivity to government policies and reforms. Nevertheless, market experts suggest that any market reaction will be moderate unless there is a substantial deviation from the exit poll projections.
Overall, market stability is anticipated unless there is an unforeseen political development in Bihar. While short-term volatility might occur, any market shifts are likely to be temporary and influenced more by sentiment than long-term fundamentals.