Apple is set to outpace Samsung in smartphone shipments for the first time in 14 years, as per a recent report by Counterpoint Research. The report predicts that Apple will ship approximately 243 million iPhones this year, surpassing Samsung’s 235 million shipments. This surge in iPhone 17 sales has propelled Apple to a leading position with a 19.4% share of the global smartphone market, edging past Samsung’s 18.7% share.
The success of Apple can be attributed to the strong performance of its iPhone 17 series, which saw robust holiday sales. In the US, sales of the iPhone 17 and iPhone Air surged by 12% in the first four weeks post-launch compared to the previous series. Similarly, in China, a market known for fierce competition, sales spiked by 18% during the same period.
Counterpoint Research’s Senior Analyst, Yang Wang, highlighted that the increased shipment outlook is driven by consumers entering the upgrade phase after purchasing smartphones during the COVID-19 period. This shift indicates a significant demand for upgrades, benefiting Apple.
While Apple enjoys this momentum, Samsung may face challenges in keeping up due to mounting pressure from Chinese competitors in the mid-range and budget segments. Counterpoint warned that this competition could hinder Samsung’s chances of reclaiming the top spot in the short term.
Looking ahead, Counterpoint projects that Apple’s dominance is not short-lived and anticipates the company to maintain its lead up to 2029. Factors contributing to this sustained success include a loyal user base, a diverse product lineup, and a growing ecosystem. The firm estimates that a considerable number of second-hand iPhones will change hands, potentially fueling future iPhone shipments.
Apple has also benefited from favorable market conditions such as a trade truce between the US and China, which eased tariff impacts, stabilizing its supply chain. Additionally, a stronger global economic outlook and a weaker US dollar have boosted consumer confidence, particularly in emerging markets.
Counterpoint Research foresees Apple surpassing Samsung in annual shipments in 2025, backed by these positive market trends. Apple’s future plans include launching the budget-friendly iPhone 17e in 2026 and introducing its first foldable iPhone. The brand aims to sustain its momentum through ongoing improvements to Siri and a major iPhone design overhaul in 2027.
By expanding its product range across various price points and catering to both aspirational buyers and loyal customers, Apple is strategically positioning itself for continued success. The company’s focus on the iOS ecosystem, combined with its product diversification strategy, could solidify its leading position in the smartphone market for years to come.